SWODY1
SPC AC 191925
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN CA INTO EXTREME SWRN AZ...
CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WITHIN
ZONE OF ASCENT...COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODEST INSTABILITY EAST OF UPPER
LOW CENTER WILL POSE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
...N CNTRL TX THROUGH NRN LA AND SWRN MS...
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF E-W BOUNDARY AND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEWD ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM N-CNTRL TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 1000
J/KG MLCAPE AND MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 10/19/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010/
...SRN CA...
COLD UPR LOW LOCATED ABOUT 200 MI WSW SAN EXPECTED TO TURN E
REACHING NRN BAJA BY 12Z WED. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SELY FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED INTO SRN CA WHICH ALONG WITH THE ADVECTION OF COOLER MID
LEVEL AIR WITH UPPER LOW...SUPPORTS ACTIVE CONVECTION MUCH OF SRN CA
THRU THE PERIOD.
WITH SOME HEATING INTO IMPERIAL VALLEY ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SELY
UPSLOPE...STRONGER/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM E
SLOPES HIGHER TERRAIN SRN CA INTO LOWER DESERT VALLEYS. 30-40KT OF
SHEAR AND MLCAPES TO 500 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL OF ROTATING
STORMS. ALONG WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...A BRIEF TORNADO WOULD ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF WEAK UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SEWD
FROM SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY IS RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER OK/AR THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND WELL NORTH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TX. BY MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS
HEATING RAISES MLCAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. INCREASING DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONGER STORMS FROM PARTS OF SRN
AR/LA INTO ERN TX/WRN MS...WITH HAIL AND GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS
POSSIBLE.
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