SWODY1
SPC AC 221618
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
VALID 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...
...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING TODAY OWING TO THE EARLY
NNEWD PROGRESSION OF STRONG MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM THROUGH THE
SRN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AWAY FROM A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER RESIDING S OF THE RED RIVER IN TX. FORCING FOR
ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS MIDLEVEL FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE
NWD/NEWD DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS TODAY FROM CNTRL OK INTO CNTRL/ERN KS
WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF MAINLY HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 12Z MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THAT A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1500 J PER KG/ MAY
DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITHIN MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT AND ALONG WRN EDGE OF
MORE PERSISTENT TSTM ACTIVITY FROM PARTS OF WRN KS SWD INTO THE ERN
TX PNHDL/WRN OK. WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TEND TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING /ESPECIALLY
OVER THE TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK/...SUSTAINED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VERTICALLY VEERING WIND
PROFILES WITH SUFFICIENT LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING STORMS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO.
A SEPARATE TSTM REGIME WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF S-CNTRL/SERN OK INTO N-CNTRL/NERN TX INVOF SYNOPTIC WARM
FRONT CURRENTLY RETREATING NWD TOWARD THE RED RIVER. ONGOING STRONG
TSTMS E OF FSI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD TODAY WITH LOW-LEVEL
WAA SUPPORTING PREFERENTIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SRN END OF
CONVECTIVE BAND. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COUPLED WITH A MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J PER KG/ BY AFTERNOON WITHIN
A KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING 40-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
MOREOVER...THE SRN EXTENSION OF A 35-45 KT SLY LLJ WILL RESIDE OVER
THE AREA...RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN
A MOIST/LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...THE THREAT WILL EXIST FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE ON THIS AREA...PLEASE SEE MCD
1963.
OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WRN
PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU REGION INTO W-CNTRL TX. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FORCED BY THE ARRIVAL OF NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE
WHICH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY/INTENSIFY OVER NWRN MEXICO. DESPITE
THE TIME OF DAY...THE PROXIMITY TO A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG
WWD-RETREATING DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT
GROWTH WITHIN A MODERATELY SHEARED /40-50 KT THROUGH THE LOWEST 6
KM/ ENVIRONMENT WHERE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WILL EXIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
..MEAD/DIAL.. 10/22/2010
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