Thursday, October 28, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 290048
SWODY1
SPC AC 290047

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 PM CDT THU OCT 28 2010

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST/FLORIDA PENINSULA...

A PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
SHIFTING EAST OF SOUTH ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. AS THIS CONTINUES
...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER INLAND AREAS IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE BY 02-03Z. MEANWHILE...A ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAY PERSIST ACROSS FLORIDA...FROM
EAST CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE INTERIOR PENINSULA AND
SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL AREAS...INTO AT LEAST LATE EVENING. IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE...THIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED...GENERALLY WEAK...THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY BECOME FOCUSED
OFFSHORE...NEAR THE GULF STREAM...WHERE AN INCREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE 03-06Z TIME FRAME...PERHAPS
ENHANCED LATE BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

..KERR.. 10/29/2010

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