SWODY1
SPC AC 221259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
VALID 221300Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL
PLNS...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN NM UPR LOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NNE INTO NRN CO THIS EVE AND
INTO WRN NEB EARLY SAT. ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TX
PANHANDLE WILL SWEEP NNE ACROSS OK/KS TODAY AND INTO NEB TONIGHT AS
A SERIES OF WEAKER DISTURBANCES...LIKELY TO EVOLVE OVER AZ/NM LATER
TODAY...REACH W TX LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.
AT THE SFC...MAIN FEATURE OF NOTE FOR SVR WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM W CNTRL TX ENE ACROSS
N TX INTO SE OK. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SLIGHTLY N LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SFC HEATING AND EVENTUAL
CESSATION OF PRECIP TO ITS N. BUT SIGNIFICANT NWD MOVEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT. ELSEWHERE...AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS.
...SRN/CNTRL PLNS...
MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE CNTRL STATES
EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED TX PANHANDLE IMPULSE.
AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES NNEWD...EXPECT THAT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN
ITS WAKE WILL BE LIMITED OR EVEN NEGATIVE FOR MOST OF THE DAY OVER
THE SRN PLNS. ELEVATED STORMS ATTENDANT TO THE IMPULSE...NOW OVER
NW TX/SW OK...SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP MAINLY NEWD...WITH A THREAT FOR
MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
BY EVE...COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LOW LVL WAA/MOISTURE INFLOW INTO
QSTNRY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND POSSIBLY APPROACH OF LOW AMPLITUDE
DISTURBANCES FROM NM...MAY SUPPORT A ROUND OF SFC-BASED STORMS OVER
N CNTRL TX AND S CNTRL OK...WHERE SBCAPE COULD REACH 1000 J/KG.
AND...IF SUFFICIENT SFC HEATING CAN OCCUR ON WRN EDGE OF STRATUS
DECK...CONVERGENCE ALONG LOW LVL CONFLUENCE AXIS MAY SUPPORT A
COUPLE LATE DAY/EARLY EVE STORMS IN THE NERN TX PANHANDLE/NW OK/SW
KS. SFC-BASED STORMS ALSO MAY FORM AROUND THE SAME TIME IN AREA OF
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR SFC LOW/TROUGHS IN ERN CO/WRN KS
AND POSSIBLY SW NEB.
35-40 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS IN THE TX/OK
REGION...IF SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS DO INDEED FORM. THESE WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES
GIVEN BACKED LOW LVL FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE. COLDER AIR ALOFT
/MINUS 16 C AT 500 MB/...PROXIMITY OF UPR IMPULSE...AND UPSLOPE
COMPONENT MAY COMPENSATE FOR SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR TO YIELD A
SIMILAR SVR THREAT IN THE WRN KS/ERN CO AREA...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
OF SFC HEATING.
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT...A SEPARATE BAND OF SUSTAINED STORMS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG TRAILING SW PART OF TX OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS
AZ/NM UPR DISTURBANCES ENHANCE ASCENT ON WRN EDGE OF INCREASING PW
/AOA 1.25 INCHES/. WHILE TIME OF DAY WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR...COOL THERMAL PROFILES AND 40-50 KT SWLY DEEP SHEAR COULD
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH SVR WIND/HAIL.
..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/22/2010
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