SWODY1
SPC AC 301546
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1046 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GREAT BASIN INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER CA THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH LOWER
LATITUDE PORTION OF MIDLEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE ROCKIES NWD
INTO ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. NONETHELESS...A POCKET OF COLD MIDLEVEL
TEMPERATURES /I.E. -20 TO -22 C AT 500 MB/ AND RESULTANT STEEP
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...CONTRIBUTING TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ATOP A
DEEP...WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING PACIFIC
FRONT AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
INTERACTS WITH DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT APPEARS QUITE LOW.
...S FL...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY OCCUR WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
FORMING ALONG SURFACE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NWD THROUGH
THE KEYS TODAY. WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED BY 12Z EYW/MFL
SOUNDINGS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL THUNDERSTORM AREA.
..MEAD/ROGERS.. 10/30/2010
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