SWODY1
SPC AC 271258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT WED OCT 27 2010
VALID 271300Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES SW TO THE CNTRL GULF CST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD BELT OF SW TO WSWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ERN AND SERN
U.S THIS PERIOD...ON SE SIDE OF INTENSE CYCLONE DRIFTING SLOWLY E
ACROSS ONT. A SERIES OF VERY LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE SERN STATES WITHIN THIS FLOW...MODULATING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ONT SYSTEM HAS BECOME NEARLY STNRY THIS
MORNING FROM ERN PA/NJ SW ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO NRN
AL...CNTRL MS AND CNTRL LA. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY
SE AND...ALONG WITH WEAK PREFRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONES/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY SVR STORMS
THROUGH EARLY THU.
...NJ/DELMARVA SW TO THE CNTRL GULF CST...
SEASONABLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S F/ WILL PERSIST S AND E OF AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SFC HEATING AND WEAK UPR IMPULSES
SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT TODAY.
SCTD TSTMS/SUPERCELLS NOW ALONG PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER
CNTRL AL/N GA MAY CONTINUE OVER THAT REGION FOR AWHILE THIS
MORNING...BEFORE ASSOCIATED UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NE TOWARD THE
CAROLINAS. STRENGTH OF SHEAR AND LOW LCLS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A
THREAT FOR LOW LVL STORM ROTATION/ISOLD TORNADOES.
OTHERWISE...MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER THE SLIGHT
RISK REGION. BUT DEEP SHEAR AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS POSING A LIMITED THREAT FOR LOW-LVL
ROTATION/TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST LOW LVL SHEAR WILL BE OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION...WHERE CONVERGENCE SHOULD MAXIMIZE NEAR
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION. 40-50 KT LOW LVL SWLY FLOW MAY
FOSTER SMALL BOWS WITH DMGG WIND...IN ADDITION TO TORNADOES.
FARTHER SW...SFC HEATING WILL STEEPEN LOW LVL LAPSE RATES IN REGION
OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST STATES.
COMBINATION OF RICH LOW LVL MOISTURE BENEATH RELATIVELY DRY AIR
ALOFT AND MODERATE WSW FLOW MAY SUPPORT STRONG TO
DMGG OUTFLOW WINDS IN SOME STORMS.
A FEW CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST... AND POSSIBLY
INCREASE...TONIGHT THROUGH THU MORNING AS SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
AND ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK /NOW CROSSING THE CNTRL RCKYS/
ENHANCE ASCENT ALONG LEAD COLD FRONT. THIS INCREASE MAY OCCUR NOT
ONLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...BUT ALSO OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST
STATES. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A LIMITED THREAT
FOR SVR WEATHER.
..CORFIDI/GRAMS.. 10/27/2010
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