SWODY1
SPC AC 071955
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
VALID 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN WY/ERN
UT/WRN CO AND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...
...SRN WY/ERN UT/WRN CO AND THE FOUR CORNERS...
VERY FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE...WITH
STORMS NOW INCREASING IN THE WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
THREAT AREA/AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX NOW MOVING NEWD TOWARD/INTO SWRN
UT. MODEST INSTABILITY BUT FAIRLY STRONG FLOW ALOFT /50 TO 60 KT AT
H5/ SUGGESTS THAT LIMITED THREAT REMAINS LIKELY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL.
..GOSS.. 10/07/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010/
...ERN UT/FOUR CORNERS TO CNTRL RCKYS...
CA UPPER LOW FINALLY ON THE MOVE AND WILL TRACK ENEWD TO NRN UT BY
12Z FRI. ONE MORE SIGNIFICANT VORT LOBE AND MID LEVEL JET MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW SHOWS UP WELL ON W/V IMAGERY SRN CA THIS AM.
THIS WILL SPREAD LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND A FAVORABLE SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WHILE THE MOISTURE FEED INTO ERN UT/WRN CO FROM THE S HAS DIMINISHED
FROM WED...EXPECT TO STILL HAVE PWAT ABOVE .5 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON.
LOW-LVL FRONTAL ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN UPR LOW SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY
E ACROSS ERN UT INTO FAR WRN CO TODAY...WITH SFC HEATING REMOVING
CINH AND INCREASING LAPSE RATES TO ABOVE 8C/KM. SFC DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S... SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD POCKETS OF SBCAPE UP TO 500
J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SLOW EWD
ADVANCE OF MAIN UPR SYSTEM...EXPECT 50-60 KT DEEP SSWLY SHEAR OVER
THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA WITH THE STRONG SHEAR SUPPORTING A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS
WITH DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS HAIL...DESPITE MARGINAL BUOYANCY. STORMS
COULD BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
AFOREMENTIONED SRN CA SHORTWAVE IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION...
ENHANCING BOTH ASCENT AND DEEP SHEAR.
HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS/BRIEF
SUPERCELLS...BUT WITH EXPECTED HIGH BASES ANY TORNADO THREAT WOULD
BE SMALL. HOWEVER SUPERCELLS WOULD ENHANCE THE WIND AND HAIL
CONCERN.
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