SWODY1
SPC AC 300459
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT FRI OCT 29 2010
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN PROMINENT THROUGH
THIS PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S... WITHIN
THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE PREVAILING SPLIT FLOW REGIME.
MEANWHILE...A CLOSED LOW WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND
CENTRAL ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A SPLITTING UPSTREAM TROUGH PROGGED INTO
THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SOUTHERN IMPULSE WILL WEAKEN EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION
PROBABLY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET AS IT NOSES EASTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES DURING THE DAY. WHILE AN ISOLATED WEAK STORM OR TWO STILL
MAY NOT BE COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST
AND COASTAL RANGES THROUGH 12-15Z TODAY...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SEEMS A BIT BETTER AS FORCING SPREADS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING AND SHORTLY AFTER THE PEAK HEATING HOURS.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED... HOWEVER...LIKELY RESULTING IN SPARSE
STORM COVERAGE AND MINIMIZING THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...DESPITE
THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.
EAST OF THE ROCKIES...SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND
SOUTHEAST MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND INLAND RETURN FLOW...WILL BE SLOW TO
DEVELOP. AS A RESULT...DRY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL
WITH NEGLIGIBLE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
..KERR/SMITH.. 10/30/2010
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