SWODY1
SPC AC 081245
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0745 AM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010
VALID 081300Z - 091200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
NEGATIVELY-TILTED MIDLEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY FROM THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES WILL PROGRESS EWD
THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD WITH INCREASED HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THE PEAK IN
DIURNAL HEATING. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LOW PRESSURE OBSERVED FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO SERN MT WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER CNTRL SD BY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EWD THROUGH THE AREA.
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY AND 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA INDICATE
THAT WARM SECTOR AIR MASS REMAINS RATHER DRY WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND PW VALUES WELL UNDER AN INCH. AND WHILE THE
PRESENCE OF AN EML WILL SUPPORT AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION WITH THE
ONSET OF DIABATIC WARMING...ASSOCIATED CAPPING WILL LIKELY LIMIT
SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION TO ALONG OR IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM ERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS SWD INTO
ERN CO/WRN KS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FROM VICINITY
OF SURFACE LOW SWWD ALONG COLD FRONT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. WHEN
COUPLED WITH 35-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND/OR SOME HAIL FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.
..MEAD/HURLBUT.. 10/08/2010
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