SWODY1
SPC AC 151932
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 PM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010
VALID 152000Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ACROSS SRN CA INTO AZ WITH GPS PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.00 INCH. AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUST MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER SERN AZ WHERE
MORE VIGOROUS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE NWD OUT OF MEXICO. GIVEN
STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ONGOING OR ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MAY CREATE ENOUGH OUTFLOW FOR A SEVERE GUST.
..JEWELL.. 10/15/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT FRI OCT 15 2010/
...SRN AZ...
IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER NWRN SONORA WILL MOVE LITTLE
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THUS AN ELY FLOW OF MODESTLY MOIST AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL PERSIST ACROSS SRN AZ INTO SERN CA.
GIVEN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ACROSS SRN
AZ...AROUND 8C/KM...AREAS THAT CAN EXPERIENCE STRONG HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY
VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN. ALTHOUGH MLCAPES EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
LESS THAN 500 J/KG...DCAPES COULD LOCALLY BE IN EXCESS OF 1000
J/KG...SUPPORTING ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL
POTENTIAL IS VERY LIMITED GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH CLOUD
BASES...THUS WILL JUST MAINTAIN A LOW PROB OF WIND DAMAGE.
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