SWODY1
SPC AC 101949
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
VALID 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE WRN HALF OF OK AND
ADJACENT NWRN TX...
...OK/WRN N TX REGION...
ONGOING FORECAST APPEARS TO REMAIN ON TRACK...WITH
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ONGOING IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION NOW MOVING
NEWD ACROSS NRN OK/SRN KS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SMALL VORT MAX
ROTATING AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE NEB LOW. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
HAS PUSHED INTO SWRN OK AND ADJACENT NWRN TX/THE SRN TX PANHANDLE.
DESPITE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE NRN OK VORT MAX...ANOTHER
SMALL-SCALE FEATURE SHIFTING SSEWD ACROSS SERN CO MAY PROVIDE ASCENT
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
THE 22-23Z TIME FRAME OVER SWRN OK/WRN N TX.
WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING CELLS...ISOLATED
HAIL/LOCALLY-DAMAGING GUSTS WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS REMAINS
APPARENT...THOUGH THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SHORT-LIVED --
DIMINISHING INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.
..GOSS.. 10/10/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010/
...SRN PLAINS...
WHILE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEB WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD TODAY...A
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT VICINITY SWRN KS/OK AREA
IS SPREADING EWD AND SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH PWAT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION
AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A
SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER THE OK
PNHDL INTO NRN OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TODAY WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/SW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
10/21Z-11/00Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ELEVATED
STORMS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SUFFICIENT /I.E. 30-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ROTATING/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG...A RELATIVELY DEEP AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
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