Friday, October 1, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020036
SWODY1
SPC AC 020034

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT FRI OCT 01 2010

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER SRN CA WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF
STATIONARY OFFSHORE UPPER LOW. DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS WITH 30+
F TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT A MODEST THREAT FOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...PRIMARILY WITH CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING NWD THROUGH THE MOJAVE DESERT AREA.

...NERN NM THROUGH THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...

STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NERN NM AND IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX. ACTIVITY RESIDES
WITHIN A RESERVOIR OF MARGINAL /AOB 500 J/KG/ MLCAPE WHERE STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE OVERSPREAD AN AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR
CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 40S DEWPOINTS. GIVEN DEEPLY MIXED AND
RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS...A MODEST THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED
DOWNBURST PERSISTS WITH REMAINING ACTIVITY. A STABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST THREAT SHOULD
GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY 02Z.

..DIAL.. 10/02/2010

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