SWODY1
SPC AC 181912
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2010
VALID 182000Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MIDLEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND SRN PLAINS...AS PACIFIC MOISTURE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
SPREADS EWD INTO A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE IS CURRENTLY WEAK WITH SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FORCING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
INTENSIFIES. GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY ALTHOUGH SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGEST CORES.
..JEWELL.. 10/18/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CDT MON OCT 18 2010/
COLD UPPER LOW OFF CENTRAL CA COAST WILL BE HEADING SWD TO A
POSITION ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF SAN BY 12Z TUE. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE UPPER LOW TO BECOME
FURTHER DISPLACED OFFSHORE. WHILE INTERIOR SWRN U.S. REMAINS UNDER
A GENERALLY WEAK FLOW...THE AIR MASS IS MODESTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WHICH WILL RESPOND TO DAYTIME HEATING IN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER WITH A MORE HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT COASTAL SRN CA...ANY CONVECTION INCLUDING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VERY LIMITED THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
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