Saturday, October 2, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 030101
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2010

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN CA THROUGH SRN AZ...

DIABATIC WARMING HAS BOOSTED MLCAPE TO 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS SRN AZ
INTO A PORTION OF SRN CA. EARLY EVENING SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
NEAR 100F OVER SRN AZ WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYERS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST NEXT COUPLE HOURS...ESPECIALLY WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER
SRN AZ. THIS ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED AN EXTENSIVE COLD POOL THAT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE WWD NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THREAT IS MORE
LIMITED ACROSS MUCH OF SRN CA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS COOLER AND
STORMS ARE MORE ISOLATED IN WAKE OF VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND UPPER
LOW. ANY REMAINING THREAT WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY 03Z WITH THE ONSET
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING.

...SRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...

WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF NRN AND
CNTRL NM WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 500 J/KG MLCAPE AND
7.5 C/KM 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KT ALONG
NERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT
ROTATION...AND A SUPERCELL CONTINUES SWD THROUGH CNTRL NM. A BRIEF
FLARE UP IN STORM INTENSITIES COULD OCCUR AS A RESULT OF OUTFLOW
MERGERS NEAR AND SOUTH OF ALBUQUERQUE. HOWEVER...TENDENCY SHOULD BE
FOR STORMS TO BEGIN A GENERAL DECREASE BY 02Z AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.

OTHER NON-SEVERE MOSTLY ELEVATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM
CNTR/ERN CO THROUGH ERN NM AND THE TX PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SEWD ADVANCING VORT MAX.

..DIAL.. 10/03/2010

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