Monday, October 18, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 190055
SWODY1
SPC AC 190054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT MON OCT 18 2010

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD...WHILE FARTHER E TROUGHING WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN
2/3 OF THE CONUS.

AT THE SURFACE...A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WSWWD INTO OK/NWRN TX WILL CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SWD IN RESPONSE TO
THE INCREASE IN UPPER TROUGHING.

PRIMARILY DIURNAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF NM/NRN AZ
AND WWD INTO THE SRN SIERRA...AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. WEAK
INSTABILITY -- WHICH WILL FURTHER DIMINISH WITH TIME THIS EVENING --
SUGGESTS A SLOW DECREASE IN CONVECTION WITH TIME.

FARTHER E...SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS ATOP THE STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER N OF THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHT FALLS PERSIST ACROSS THIS
REGION...BUT GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.
WHILE A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING
SEVERE LEVELS...THREAT FOR ONE INCH OR GREATER HAIL APPEARS LOW
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF 5 PERCENT PROBABILITY.

..GOSS.. 10/19/2010

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