SWODY1
SPC AC 121236
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 AM CDT TUE OCT 12 2010
VALID 121300Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE WHILE TRANSLATING SEWD THROUGH
THE GULF COAST STATES THROUGH EARLY WED. AS THIS PROCESS
OCCURS...SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND AN ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF
HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALONG WITH A BELT OF 35-45
KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. IN THE LOW-LEVELS...A SERIES OF MCSS /NOW DECAYED
OFF THE LA COAST/ HAVE EFFECTIVELY SCOURED THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR
MASS WHICH WAS EARLIER IN PLACE ACROSS ERN TX INTO LA. RESIDUAL
EFFECTS...MOST NOTABLY SEEN IN BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING...WILL LIKELY
TEMPER THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WAR SECTOR
TODAY. HOWEVER...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD YIELD AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG.
LATEST CONVECTION-RESOLVING AND MESOSCALE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT REGION MAY BE AFFECTED BY MULTIPLE EPISODES OF STORMS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY FORCED BY VORTICITY LOBES PIVOTING AROUND
PARENT CIRCULATION. BASED ON CURRENT VWP...PROFILER...12Z UPPER-AIR
OBSERVATIONS AND NUMERICAL FORECASTS...THE BELT OF STRONGEST
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND RESULTANT DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO NEAR
AND S OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WITH FLOW FIELD DECREASING WITH NWD
EXTENT. GIVEN THE MODEST DESTABILIZATION ANTICIPATED BY
AFTERNOON...SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORM MODES...
INCLUDING MULTI- AND SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL INTO TONIGHT.
...MID ATLANTIC COAST...
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE /BOTH MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-RESOLVING/
INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF ERN MD...DE..SERN PA AND SRN NJ ALONG COLD
FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE AREA. BASED ON 12Z PIT/IAD
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID THIS AFTERNOON...
ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE MODESTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES...WEAK
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND MODERATELY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. AS SUCH...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT
CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME SUSTAINED LATER TODAY.
..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/12/2010
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