SWODY1
SPC AC 230036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0736 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
VALID 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN TX INTO SERN OK...
...SRN PLAINS...
WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING APPEARS TO BE SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE SRN PLAINS THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLING IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAKER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EARLIER
SEVERE SUPERCELL ACTIVITY NEAR THE RED RIVER HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED
IN INTENSITY WITH ONLY A FEW CELLS LINGERING NEAR SPS. EVEN SO WEAK
WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MOIST AXIS ACROSS NCNTRL
TX INTO SERN KS/SWRN MO WHERE UPDRAFTS MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED IN NATURE. WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL COOLING IT APPEARS
CONVECTION WILL BECOME ROOTED IN THE 900-950MB LAYER...THOUGH MUCAPE
ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG COULD STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED ROBUST
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. REF MCD1966 FOR MORE INFO ON THIS THREAT.
EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A SECONDARY LOWER
LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINNING TO EJECT ACROSS NM/NRN MEXICO
INTO FAR WEST TX. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU OF SWRN TX LATE AIDING FURTHER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER THIS REGION WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST STRONG-SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD EMERGE
ACROSS THIS REGION BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN SPREAD NEWD TOWARD NCNTRL
TX INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY2 PERIOD. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
..DARROW.. 10/23/2010
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