SWODY2
SPC AC 130511
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1211 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OVER THE ERN STATES
AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF STRONG IMPULSES DROPS SEWD INTO THE MEAN
TROUGH POSITION. THIS VORT MAX WILL INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY AS IT INTERACTS WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NWD...REACHING SRN NEW ENGLAND
TOWARD THE END OF PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM NC WNWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE SEWD ADVANCING IMPULSE AND USHER IN A REINFORCING
SURGE OF CP AIR. THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH VA...THE CAROLINAS
AND THE SERN STATES DURING THE DAY.
...ERN NC...
DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH APPROACH OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT
RAPIDLY OFF THE NC/VA COAST BY MID-DAY CONTRIBUTING TO WLY OFFSHORE
FLOW AND LIMITING INLAND RETURN OF QUALITY MOISTURE EXCEPT NEAR THE
COAST. DEWPOINTS IN WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S
ALONG THE COAST TO 50S FARTHER WEST. AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH APPROACHING THERMAL TROUGH.
SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY FROM THE ERN CAROLINAS INTO
SERN VA. LOWEST 3 KM FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN MODEST IN WARM
SECTOR...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL INCREASE WITH
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WLY UNIDIRECTIONAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR
NEAR 40 KT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF UPDRAFT ROTATION. IT STILL
APPEARS THAT SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD EVOLVE FROM THE ERN
CAROLINAS INTO SERN VA. CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT IS
NOT SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL RISK DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS WITHIN THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 10/13/2010
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