SWODY2
SPC AC 160500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
NRN AND SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS -- NOW EVIDENT OVER N PAC INVOF
140W -- ARE FCST TO PHASE THROUGH DAY-1 PERIOD AND MOVE EWD TOWARD
PAC COAST THROUGH EARLY DA-2. CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS TROUGH NEAR CENTRAL CA COAST ROUGHLY DURING 18/00Z-18/06Z
TIME FRAME. SINCE 24 HOURS AGO...ALL AVAILABLE PROGS HAVE SLOWED
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM FOR SAME VALID TIMES LATE IN WHAT NOW IS
DAY-2 PERIOD. OPERATIONAL WRF/SPECTRAL INDICATE 500-MB CIRCULATION
CENTER STILL JUST OFFSHORE AT END OF PERIOD...WHILE SREF MEAN AND
MAJORITY OF INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS STILL PREDICT INLAND CENTER. GIVEN
PATTERN OF HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED TO ITS N...CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL
PROGS IS PREFERRED OVER THAT OF SREF FOR THIS FCST.
MEANWHILE...MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NRN SONORA IS FCST TO
MOVE SLOWLY ENEWD ACROSS NM AND SRN HIGH PLAINS AND WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT FAST-MOVING TROUGH IN NRN STREAM NWLYS...FROM
NRN HIGH PLAINS AROUND 18/00Z ACROSS UPPER MS VALLEY 12 HOURS LATER.
INITIAL LEE TROUGHING OVER SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD EVOLVE
INTO CLOSED SFC LOW INVOF SWRN KS LATE IN PERIOD...WITH WARM
FRONTOGENESIS TO ITS E ACROSS MO. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT GULF-COAST
RIDGING WITHIN POORLY MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR PASS SHOULD PREVENT
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN TO SUPPORT TSTMS OVER CENTRAL-ERN CONUS.
...WRN CONUS...
WIDELY SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
SIERRA NV REGION EWD ACROSS GREAT BASIN...BENEATH STGLY DIFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT...WHERE POCKETS OF FAVORABLE SFC MOISTURE AND STG
DIABATIC HEATING CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE IN 200-500 J/KG RANGE.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE SEWD OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM NRN AZ TO FAR W TX AMIDST MRGL MOISTURE BUT STEEP
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...DISSIPATING AFTER DARK. IN BOTH
REGIMES...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2010
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