SWODY2
SPC AC 310509
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1209 AM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH & EAST TX/WRN LA...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES INTO DEEP SOUTH TX BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY ENHANCE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT BY LATE
AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DRT TO TXK.
ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT...850MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT...SUFFICIENT ASCENT
ATOP FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AND SCT-NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ATOP MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. WILL MAINTAIN A 5%
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE...PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL...AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MANY UPDRAFTS COULD
ACTUALLY EVOLVE ALONG AND JUST BEHIND SURGING WIND SHIFT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR AND THIS WILL CERTAINLY AID THE POSSIBILITY FOR NUMEROUS
ROBUST UPDRAFTS. THE PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED IN LATER OUTLOOKS AND A SLIGHT RISK MAY BE WARRANTED.
..DARROW.. 10/31/2010
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