SWODY2
SPC AC 191726
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1226 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NM INTO SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH REX BLOCK TO
PERSIST IN THE WEST WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S..
THE SWRN U.S. UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT ONLY SLOWLY EWD TO SWRN AZ. THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM NC WSWWD THROUGH WRN TX WILL ADVANCE SWD
TO THE GULF COAST...WHILE BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS WRN TX.
...ERN NM THROUGH WRN TX...
ELY-SELY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL EXIST OVER SWRN TX INTO SERN/ERN NM TO
THE NORTH OF STALLED FRONT...ADVECTING 50S DEWPOINTS WNWWD INTO THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS BENEATH STEEPER LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE WILL BE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS FROM SERN NM INTO SWRN TX WHERE BELT
OF 25-30 KT FLOW ALOFT WEST OF RIDGE AXIS WILL OVERLAP ESELY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY OF FRONT RESULTING IN 35-40 KT VERTICAL
SHEAR. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN ZONE
OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND FAVORABLE UPSLOPE
REGIME AND SPREAD EWD THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY...MAINLY FROM SERN NM THROUGH SWRN TX.
...SRN CA THROUGH AZ...
COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL EXIST IN PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW WITH
-15 TO -18C AT 500MB ACROSS AZ INTO SRN CA. DIABATIC WARMING SHOULD
BOOST MLCAPE TO 500-800 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. ASCENT WITH LOBE
OF VORTICITY ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL
PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AREAS /20-30 KT/ WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...7-7.5 C/KM LAPSE
RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
..DIAL.. 10/19/2010
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