SWODY3
SPC AC 300716
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CDT SAT OCT 30 2010
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
...SOUTH/EAST TX/WRN LA...
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST THE INTER-MOUNTAIN/CNTRL ROCKIES
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON DAY2 WILL DIG SHARPLY SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS
MONDAY AS H5 FLOW IN EXCESS OF 50-60KT INTENSIFIES ALONG THE LEE OF
THE SRN ROCKIES. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE SPREADS INTO
CNTRL/ERN TX IT APPEARS FORCING WILL INCREASE SUCH THAT CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM AR...SWWD INTO SCNTRL
TX NEAR THE SRN ESCARPMENT. CONVECTION WILL BE AIDED IN LARGE PART
BY A FAVORABLE MOIST TRAJECTORY OFF THE WRN GULF THAT WILL ALLOW SFC
DEW POINTS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 60S - PERHAPS EVEN NEAR 70F ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TX. IN FACT SBCAPE COULD
RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR/INSTABILITY HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A
5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE FOR FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT SHOULD INITIATE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP SEWD
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO
DEEP SOUTH TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. SEVERE PROBS MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED ACROSS THIS REGION IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO INCREASES.
..DARROW.. 10/30/2010
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