SWOD48
SPC AC 070855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT THU OCT 07 2010
VALID 101200Z - 151200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
DAY 3 /SAT/ MID MO VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW/TROUGH...AS THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS E/SEWD REACHING AREAS ALONG AND E OF THE MS VALLEY ON
DAY 6 /TUE/. MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC
NW/WRN CANADA ON DAY 4 /SUN/ WILL AMPLIFY ESEWD EVOLVING INTO A
LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST BY DAY 8 /THU/...THOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM E OF THE ROCKIES FROM DAY 6 TO DAY 8.
SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN NWD THROUGH
TX/OK...AND TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING DAYS 4/5 /SUN AND
MON/...WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN OK/TX ON DAY 5. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY AND AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AREA ON DAY 5...AND THE REST OF THIS OUTLOOK.
..PETERS.. 10/07/2010
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