SWOD48
SPC AC 130742
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0242 AM CDT WED OCT 13 2010
VALID 161200Z - 211200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE INLAND...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH DAY 6 /MONDAY/. BY DAY 6 POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS IN WAKE OF
RETREATING SURFACE RIDGE. HOWEVER...MODEL DISCREPANCIES INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE HANDLING OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WRN STATES. MODELS HAVE NOT SHOWN VERY GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
WITH THIS PATTERN...AND ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE DISPERSIVE DAY 6 AND
BEYOND. WHILE SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY DAY 7-8
OVER THE SRN PLAINS...OVERALL PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
..DIAL.. 10/13/2010
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