SWOD48
SPC AC 160846
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CDT SAT OCT 16 2010
VALID 191200Z - 241200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DAY 2-3 EVOLUTION OF MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE INVOF COASTAL CA...WITH
HEIGHT RISES TO ITS N...IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN REX PATTERN AT
LEAST THROUGH DAY-5/20TH-21ST...WITH QUASISTATIONARY TO SLOWLY
PROGRESSIVE CUT-OFF LOW INVOF NRN BAJA AND SONORA...AND RIDGING NWD
OVER CANADIAN ROCKIES. STG NERN PAC SHORTWAVES SHOULD BREAK DOWN
WRN PORTION OF RIDGING PATTERN THEREAFTER...RESULTING IN ENEWD
TRANSLATION OF LOW ACROSS NM TOWARD W TX. AS IS COMMON IN BAJA
CUT-OFF LOW SCENARIOS...OPERATIONAL PROGS AND MREF MEMBERS VARY
GREATLY ON TIMING OF THIS PROCESS AND EFFECTS ON MASS/THERMODYNAMIC
FIELDS DOWNSTREAM. MEANWHILE STG MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS
GREAT LAKES AND ERN CONUS...INDICATING POOR QUALITY OF RETURN-FLOW
MOISTURE AHEAD OF EVENTUAL EJECTION OF SWRN LOW. GIVEN THESE
CONDITIONS...BOTH POTENTIAL AND PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE APPEAR TOO
LOW FOR OUTLOOK ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 10/16/2010
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