SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022236
NMZ000-COZ000-030000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT SAT OCT 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN NM...FAR SRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 022236Z - 030000Z
A THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF NM AND FAR SRN CO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED AND WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING FROM SANTE FE EWD
ACROSS THE PLAINS OF NE NM WHERE A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS
LOCATED AND SBCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...THE TUCUMCARI PROFILER SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MORE INTENSE CORES. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
SMALL HAIL. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE WHICH MAY
ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH.
..BROYLES.. 10/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 33280385 32880463 32900512 33130571 33480602 34010625
34660649 35280662 36290649 36810603 37630541 37420450
36680395 35450418 34440353 33280385
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