SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062143
AZZ000-UTZ000-062315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0443 PM CDT WED OCT 06 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AZ/UT
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 694...
VALID 062143Z - 062315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 694 CONTINUES.
SEVERE/TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE/BECOME MORE
ISOLATED THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
TORNADO WATCH 694 ACROSS AZ AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT. GIVEN THIS
TREND...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TORNADO WATCH 694 WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE BY/AT 00Z.
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER CA...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THE BRUNT OF LARGE SCALE FORCING CONTINUES TO STEADILY
PIVOT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD SOUTHERN/EASTERN UT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
THIS APPEARS TO HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
WELL-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE NOW ACROSS FAR EASTERN UT NEAR THE CO
BORDER. IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER FORCING...THE OVERALL STRONG/SEVERE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE ISOLATED/MARGINAL THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF AZ/SOUTHERN UT. THIS IS
ATTRIBUTABLE TO IMPLIED SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN TANDEM WITH A FEW
DEGREES C OF MID LEVEL /500-700 MB/ WARMING REFLECTED IN THE 18Z
TUCSON OBSERVED RAOB SINCE 12Z. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR/BUOYANCY WILL
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS/SUPERCELLS AND ASSOCIATED
SEVERE THREATS...WANING LARGE SCALE SUPPORT/MASS CONVERGENCE AND A
GRADUALLY DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER IN MOST LOCALES SHOULD YIELD A
DIMINISHING SEVERE THREAT OVERALL.
..GUYER.. 10/06/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
LAT...LON 39241035 40050966 38950911 34010953 34211207 36821117
39241035
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