Friday, October 8, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1939

ACUS11 KWNS 082216
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082216
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-082345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1939
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0516 PM CDT FRI OCT 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN SD AND WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB TO
NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082216Z - 082345Z

DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITHIN A
NARROW CORRIDOR...MAINLY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB INTO
SOUTHERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB/NORTHWEST KS...WITH
SOME DAMAGING WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL.

AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO CYCLONICALLY PIVOT OVER
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A FAST MOVING
/45-50 KT/ QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
STEADILY ADVANCE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST
NEB INTO SOUTHERN SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/UPSCALE GROWTH POSSIBLE...IS SEMI-FOCUSED
ALONG/WEST OF A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. WHILE
MOISTURE/TOTAL BUOYANCY IS LIMITED...STEEP LAPSE RATES/HIGH DCAPE IN
TANDEM WITH STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
THE CONTINUANCE OF A SEMI-ORGANIZED FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTER
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL ACROSS NORTHERN NEB/INTO
SOUTHERN SD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS
COULD ALSO POSE AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE BY AROUND 01Z-02Z AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS/DECOUPLES.

..GUYER.. 10/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 39820025 39510109 40800225 44460125 43839907 39820025

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.

No comments: