Monday, October 11, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1948

ACUS11 KWNS 112207
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112207
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1948
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0507 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SRN NY AND NRN NJ

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698...

VALID 112207Z - 112330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 698
CONTINUES.

A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS...WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS
...WAS LOCATED IN NORTHEAST PA NEAR AVP NEAR 22Z. THESE STORMS WERE
COLOCATED NEAR A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS LOCATED ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT THAT STRETCHED ACROSS NRN PA EWD INTO FAR SRN
NY. THE STORMS AND LOW PRESSURE CENTER ARE MOVING EWD AT NEAR 30KT
AND SHOULD MOVE INTO NRN NJ DURING THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. ALTHOUGH
THE INSTABILITY IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE.

ELSEWHERE IN THE WATCH...CONVERGENCE IS WEAKER...BUT ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WRN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FROM
CENTRAL PA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

..IMY.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON 39867538 40337719 41307717 42087718 41837635 41467478
41157358 40407358 39457362 39867538

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