Monday, October 11, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1949

ACUS11 KWNS 112238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112237
TXZ000-112330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT MON OCT 11 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112237Z - 112330Z

INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT HAS
RESULTED IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A WW DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ATTM...BUT
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL TX...COINCIDENT WITH A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT
ORIENTED W-E. SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED UP INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...AND HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT /1000-1500 J/KG ML CAPE/ AND WEAKENING CINH
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS MAY LEAD TO A FEW
ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT ESEWD WITH MARGINAL SVR POTENTIAL
CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO A
SMALL CLUSTER LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING AND
RESULTANT DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL SVR THREAT
BEYOND SUNSET.

..ROGERS.. 10/11/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 30549671 30169800 30159942 30429957 30719943 31159834
31569732 31609697 31389636 30959630 30549671

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