SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220751 COR
OKZ000-TXZ000-221015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 AM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION...SERN TX
PANHANDLE...NW TX...EXTREME SWRN OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 220751Z - 221015Z
CORRECTED FOR TYPO
TSTM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE WITH ACTIVITY MOVING SW-NE ACROSS THIS
REGION...THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN HOURS. ISOLATED/SPORADIC LARGE
HAIL WILL BE MAIN SVR CONCERN...AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN RATES 1-2
INCHES/HOUR ALSO ARE POSSIBLE.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
EXTENDING SWWD FROM CENTRAL OK ACROSS THROCKMORTON/SCURRY/NRN
ANDREWS COUNTIES TX...BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY W SNK. SHALLOW BUT
VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PERSIST N OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
SFC TEMPS 50S F BENEATH MOST OF CONVECTION MITIGATING STRENGTH OF
DOWNDRAFT GUSTS. BELT OF ENHANCED LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- SHIFTING
NEWD AROUND SERN RIM OF MID-UPPER CYCLONE -- IS SUPPORTING THIS
DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES. LOW-LEVEL
WAA/MOIST ADVECTION ALSO IS OCCURRING ATOP COLD AIR MASS...ALONG WRN
RIM OF BROAD/35-40 KT LLJ. LLJ SHOULD VEER/WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH
12Z...BUT STILL SUPPORT REGIME OF FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO
LFC. COMBINED RESULT WILL BE ELEVATED MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG BASED
ON MODIFIED RUC/ETA-KF FCST SOUNDINGS. 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDES...DERIVED FROM THOSE MODEL SOUNDINGS AS WELL AS VWP
DATA...SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR OCNL ORGANIZED MULTICELL CONVECTION
WITH NEWER MCS OR MRGL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE FOR RELATIVELY DISCRETE
TSTMS AWAY FROM MAIN LINE.
..EDWARDS.. 10/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...MAF...
LAT...LON 33629999 33170053 32870231 33000301 33690281 34700163
35250085 35339999 34939976 34579971 34049979 33629999
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