SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221925
OKZ000-TXZ000-222100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1965
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 PM CDT FRI OCT 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN TX AND SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221925Z - 222100Z
IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A WW LIKELY WILL BE ISSUED BY 20-12Z.
SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE
SEEMS LIKELY TO BE INHIBITIVE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AS IT SPREADS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 23-00Z. HOWEVER...DEEPENING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING WITHIN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...PERHAPS MOST NOTABLY NEAR A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED BAROCLINIC
ZONE...FROM THE DRY LINE INTERSECTION TO THE NORTHWEST OF
ABILENE...EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. GIVEN THIS
ACTIVITY...IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE /AT OR ABOVE
1000 J PER KG/...MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND SIZABLE CLOCKWISE
CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EXISTS...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING.
..KERR.. 10/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...
LAT...LON 33620070 34469948 35069771 35269616 33949558 33519611
32979804 33070020 33620070
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