Tuesday, October 26, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1998

ACUS11 KWNS 261030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261030
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-261130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0530 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...WI/SRN UPPER MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 261030Z - 261130Z

CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INVOF THE UPPER MS
VALLEY MAY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEDGE OF SURFACE MOISTURE ARCING NWWD
ACROSS WI TOWARD E CENTRAL MN...ALONG THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT E OF
THE DEEPENING CENTRAL MN SURFACE LOW. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODEST INSTABILITY WITHIN THE
MOIST AXIS IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE INCREASE NOTED IN BOTH RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA OVER THE PAST HOUR.

THE INCREASING CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN A KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT FEATURING STRONG SLY/SSWLY FLOW WITH HEIGHT.
OVERALL...THIS ENVIRONMENT APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING
GUSTS WITH SMALL-SCALE LINE SEGMENTS. IF CONVECTION INDEED
CONTINUES TO INCREASE/ORGANIZE...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY.

..GOSS.. 10/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON 43449103 44489196 45489234 46208972 45838654 43488769
43449103

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