Tuesday, October 26, 2010

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1999

ACUS11 KWNS 261101
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261100
OHZ000-KYZ000-MIZ000-TNZ000-INZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-261300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1999
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0600 AM CDT TUE OCT 26 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI/ERN IL/INDIANA/WRN OH/SERN
MO/ERN AR/WRN AND CENTRAL KY/NRN MS/WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NWRN AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 719...720...721...

VALID 261100Z - 261300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
719...720...721...CONTINUES.

ARCING BAND OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES MOVING RAPIDLY
EWD/ENEWD ACROSS THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY REGION AND
VICINITY...ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER MN/IA/MO ATTM. A MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER IS SUPPORTING MODEST INSTABILITY --
FUELING THE ONGOING STORMS...WHILE VERY STRONG FLOW FIELD THROUGH
THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE IS AIDING IN STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSITY.
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED LARGELY CONFINED TO THE FRONTAL BAND -- AND
THUS MAIN SEVERE THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH
SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING -- AND MAY INCREASE THROUGH MIDDAY
AS POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRE-FRONTAL CELLULAR CONVECTION
INCREASES.

WITH THE MOST EWD PORTION OF THE ARCING BAND OF STORMS -- NOW MOVING
INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY REGION -- SHIFTING EWD AT 40 KT...STORMS
WILL NEAR THE ERN FRINGE OF TORNADO WATCHES 720 AND 721 AROUND 13Z.
THIS WILL REQUIRE NEW WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.

..GOSS.. 10/26/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...JKL...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...GRR...OHX...
IND...BMX...HUN...PAH...GRB...LOT...ILX...MKX...MEG...LSX...DVN...
ARX...LZK...

LAT...LON 42649050 43589116 43978821 43758474 43028432 41748331
40128282 38608324 36688476 34228723 34119261 35179151
37678949 39778900 41608982 42649050

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