SWODY1
SPC AC 030524
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 AM CDT WED NOV 03 2010
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN LA...
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
DAY 1 UPPER FLOW REGIME...BUT HAVE TRENDED MORE SEWD WITH THE TX
CLOSED LOW TRACK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...THAN WAS
INDICATED BY PREVIOUS MODEL SOLUTIONS. A DEEP CLOSED LOW LOCATED
ALONG THE MID-UPPER TX COAST AT 12Z TODAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD INTO
THE NWRN GULF BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GOM BY 12Z THURSDAY.
THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF A POLAR
BRANCH TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE TX CLOSED LOW...THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW IS NOW FORECAST TO LINGER ALONG THE SRN LA COAST INTO
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF AFTER 04/00Z.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINING INLAND...
AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO SERN LA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SURFACE HEATING WITHIN RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BENEATH 7-7.5 C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT
IN MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SERN LA. TSTMS SHOULD
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THIS PART OF LA IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE
EXIT REGION OF A 50 KT SSWLY MIDLEVEL JET SPREADS ACROSS A CORRIDOR
OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADO THREAT...WHILE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.
OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE IN THE
EVENING AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WARM SECTOR MOVES INTO THE GULF
IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING OFFSHORE FLOW WITH THE AMPLIFYING GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY SYSTEM.
..PETERS/SMITH.. 11/03/2010
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