SWODY1
SPC AC 121614
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1014 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2010
VALID 121630Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MORNING WV IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING EWD
INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE...AND THIS SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO TURN
MORE ENEWD THROUGH NRN OK AND INTO ERN KS/WRN MO THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AS ANOTHER IMPULSE DROPS SWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES.
STRONGEST FORCING...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGEST HEIGHT FALLS AND LEFT
EXIT REGION OF 50-70 KT MID LEVEL JET...WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS OK
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO MO TONIGHT. AT 16Z...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED NEAR A MKC-WEST OF TUL-FSI-WEST OF ABI LINE AND IT APPEARS
THE STRONGER FORCING SHOULD SPREAD MOSTLY NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT NEAR FSI
AND SHOULD TRACK ENEWD THROUGH CENTRAL AND INTO ERN OK THROUGH THE
DAY. DESPITE WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 70F WILL YIELD MLCAPES FROM 500-1000
J/KG ACROSS SRN OK AND TX. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STRONG GRADIENT
LOCATED NEAR THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...AS EVIDENCED BY 30-40 KT WINDS
IN THE COLD AIR WEST OF THE LOW...ORGANIZED STORMS WITH STRONG AND
POTENTIALLY BRIEFLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING
COLD FRONT AS THEY SHIFT EWD ACROSS SRN OK AND NRN TX THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS...THE STRONGER FORCING
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT RISK ISSUANCE.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 11/12/2010
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