SWODY1
SPC AC 160600
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CST TUE NOV 16 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF AL/GA/NORTH
FL...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
BASAL PORTION OF THE BROAD CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH /AND ASSOCIATED
STRONG POLAR JET/ IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE AND TRANSITION FROM A
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX EARLY
TODAY...AND REACH THE MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES BY EARLY
TUESDAY. MARITIME AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY/PARTIALLY RETURN GENERALLY
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST/SOUTHEAST STATES...AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS.
...GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE ARKLATEX
VICINITY...APPRECIABLE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD BE WELL UNDERWAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES THIS MORNING AS A MARITIME
AIRMASS RETURNS INLAND...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT DETERRED BY
ONGOING/PERSISTENT REINFORCING-TYPE RAINFALL NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY...THE RELATIVELY HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR DEEP CONVECTION/SURFACE BASED TSTMS WILL GENERALLY
BE CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL AND GA/THE FL
PANHANDLE...AS THE DEEP TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELD MARKEDLY STRENGTHENS
/ACCENTUATED BY 50+ KT FLOW AROUND 1 KM/. IN SPITE OF WEAK BUOYANCY
/500 J PER KG OR LESS IN MOST AREAS/...THE DEGREE OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL YIELD A SCENARIO CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST
AN ISOLATED/CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS AND OTHERWISE
PROBABLE QLCS DEVELOPMENT/BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE.
FARTHER NORTHEAST AND A BIT LATER IN THE DAY...INITIALLY FROM THE
CAROLINAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY TONIGHT...CONSIDERABLE DEEP
LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT/ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
TRANSLATE OVER THE REGION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AS
THE UPPER SYSTEM BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MEAGER
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION...BUT NONETHELESS THE DEGREE OF FORCING
AND ASSOCIATED TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR
WIND DAMAGE/PERHAPS A TORNADO SHOULD SUFFICIENT /ALBEIT MEAGER/
NEAR-SURFACE BUOYANCY MATERIALIZE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT COASTAL
/AND PERHAPS PIEDMONT/ PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS MAY HAVE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF CONSEQUENTIAL DESTABILIZATION/SURFACE BASED
TSTMS...AND THUS PERHAPS A SOMEWHAT MORE CONCENTRATED/RELATIVELY
HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS...WHILE A
BROAD PORTION OF THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE A MODEST PROBABILITY OF
EXPERIENCING WIND DAMAGE AND/OR A BRIEF TORNADO...A SLIGHT RISK HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
..GUYER/HURLBUT.. 11/16/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment