SWODY1
SPC AC 171928
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0128 PM CST WED NOV 17 2010
VALID 172000Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
...GREAT LAKES...
MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...WHERE LIGHTNING DATA HAS
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. WHILE ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED PERHAPS A BIT LONGER THAN
EARLIER ANTICIPATED...IT REMAINS RELATIVELY ISOLATED. AND GUIDANCE
GENERALLY INDICATES THE ONSET OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WARMING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SUPPRESS FURTHER WEAK
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
...ELSEWHERE...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING OUTLOOK.
..KERR.. 11/17/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST WED NOV 17 2010/
...SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A LEAD TROUGH WILL CROSS NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR DEEP CONVECTION. UPSTREAM
OVER LOWER MI...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MORNING
NEAR THE SW SHORE OF LAKE MI. THIS CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
AS AN ASSOCIATED WEAK TROUGH MOVES E OF LAKE MI AND ANY ASSOCIATED
LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. FARTHER SW...A PRONOUNCED
WAVE OVER OK/TX WILL MOVE EWD TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY EARLY
TONIGHT. MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH COULD
SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
THIS EVENING EWD INTO MS OVERNIGHT. LASTLY...A STRONG TROUGH WILL
MOVE INLAND OVER THE PAC NW COAST LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY W OF THE CASCADES.
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment