SWODY1
SPC AC 211905
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0105 PM CST SUN NOV 21 2010
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW OVER NV WILL CONTINUE EWD WITH RISING HEIGHTS OVER
CA...THEREFORE REMOVED THE W COAST GENERAL THUNDER AREA. ISOLATED
STRIKES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM UT/NRN AZ INTO WRN CO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH POCKETS OF HEATING AND APPROACHING TROUGH.
OVERNIGHT...NEWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH A 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET
MAY ALLOW FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM FROM NRN MO INTO
SWRN LOWER MI. ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE STRONG...SEVERE HAIL
IS NOT EXPECTED AS INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN POOR.
..JEWELL.. 11/21/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST SUN NOV 21 2010/
LARGE/COLD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL PERSIST
WELL BEYOND THE DAY1 PERIOD...RESULTING IN A FEW AREAS OF
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE OCCURRED WITH THE S/WV IMPULSE NOW
MOVING EWD INTO NV/UT. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH EWD ACROSS NV.
STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION WILL
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF MO/IL INTO LOWER MI AS GULF
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NEWD.
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