SWODY1
SPC AC 231956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2010
VALID 232000Z - 241200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
--- UPDATES ---
...MS AND ARKLATEX TO W GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN
OK...COLD FRONT ESEWD ACROSS SRN AR AND CENTRAL PORTIONS MS/AL.
COLD FRONT W OF MS RIVER WILL DECELERATE THROUGH EARLY EVENING AND
SHOULD RETREAT NWD OVERNIGHT AS WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE...WEAKLY
CAPPED AIR MASS OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT
SLY WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO SLOW NWD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE OVER E TX
AND WRN LA. THIS IS EVIDENT BENEATH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES THAT
INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT...FROM AROUND 20-30 KT NEAR I-10 TO 50-60
KT IN EXTREME NE TX. CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM
ARKLATEX REGION SWD TOWARD PARTS OF SE TX AND EWD OVER PORTIONS SRN
MS. LIMITING FACTORS INCLUDE ANAFRONTAL/FRONTOLYTIC NATURE OF
BOUNDARY...BRIEF REMAINING TIME WINDOW FOR SIGNIFICANT
HEATING...WEAK SFC WINDS...AND RELATED LACK OF BOTH CONVERGENCE AND
SRH. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 2071-2072 FOR NEAR-TERM FCST
DETAILS OVER PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.
POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE TOO MRGL/CONDITIONAL FOR CATEGORICAL
OUTLOOK.
..EDWARDS.. 11/23/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1024 AM CST TUE NOV 23 2010/
AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE A POWERFUL
UPPER LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH DOWNSTREAM FLAT
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE S-CENTRAL STATES AND AN UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
EWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES/NEW ENGLAND. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND
OFF THE E COAST BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY WHILE THE WWD PORTION OF THE
BOUNDARY SAGS SWD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE
RETREATING NWD LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS STATES. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY EWD INTO GA PRIMARILY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. DESPITE A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS THIS
REGION...THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE
MINIMAL DUE IN PART TO POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. LATER THIS EVENING...ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTANT FROM AN
INCREASING LLJ ACROSS THE LOW PLAINS FROM THE ARKLATEX NWD TO ERN KS
WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST SMALL HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
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