SWODY1
SPC AC 241951
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0151 PM CST WED NOV 24 2010
VALID 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN OK TO LOWER MO
VALLEY...
--- UPDATES ---
...ERN OK TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
MINOR EWD SHIFT OF WRN PORTION OF SVR OUTLOOK RELATES TO EWD
MOVEMENT OF MAIN CONFLUENCE LINE ACROSS ERN OK. THIS RESULTS IN
SWLY SFC WINDS TO ITS W SUPPORTING WEAKER CONVERGENCE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES. VIS IMAGERY AND RADAR ANIMATIONS AS
OF 1930Z INDICATE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF CONVECTION OVER SERN KS AND
E-CENTRAL OK. THIS IS OCCURRING AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO MID-UPPER
70S AND LOW 80S F...SW OF WARM FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED NEAR
HRO-JLN-CNU LINE AT 19Z. ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED SOUNDINGS YIELD
MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG IN ENVIRONMENT OF 60-70 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
MAGNITUDE. PROFILERS INDICATE 250-400 J/KG OF 0-1 KM SRH IN SAME
AIR MASS. SUSTAINED TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY BE IMMINENT...EVOLVING
INTO SUPERCELLS. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2075 FOR ADDITIONAL
NEAR-TERM FCST GUIDANCE.
..EDWARDS.. 11/24/2010
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST WED NOV 24 2010/
...ERN OK TO LOWER MO VALLEY...
RICH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NWD THRU THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD
OF THE INTENSE COLD UPPER LOW AND TROUGH NOW CROSSING THE ROCKIES.
WHILE THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW SURGING SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL NEB TO
CO WILL NOT INTERCEPT THE MOIST WARM SECTOR UNTIL AFTER DARK...IT
NOW APPEARS THAT SURFACE HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
RETURNING WARM FRONT.
WITH SURFACE TEMPS RISING THRU THE 70S F AND DEWPOINTS AT LEAST MID
60S...MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH LITTLE CINH WILL BE IN PLACE
ERN OK BY MID AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
INITIALLY FROM SERN CORNER KS/SWRN MO INTO NERN OK WHERE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT WILL BE GREATEST.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AS 100KT MID LEVEL
JET TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE WARM
SECTOR SHOULD LEAD TO A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT OVER NERN OK/SWRN MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS AND AR.
THESE WOULD POSE THE RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE AS STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT BY THIS EVENING AND DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA .
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