SWODY1
SPC AC 280527
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 PM CST SAT NOV 27 2010
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...NOW DIGGING ACROSS CALIFORNIA...
CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH MODELS SUGGEST WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THE EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY
...BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES... AND
PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO THE EVOLUTION OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL CYCLONE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z MONDAY.
AS THIS OCCURS...AND DOWNSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS NEAR THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND EVENTUALLY STRENGTHEN OFF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
A RAPID RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH/ PARTICULARLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THIS PROBABLY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME STRONG
MID-LEVEL INHIBITION ACROSS SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST TEXAS. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COULD BECOME SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT WEAK THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BASED WITHIN AN ELEVATED
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION REGIME ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA...PRIOR TO 12Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH NEGLIGIBLE OR NEARLY NEGLIGIBLE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
..KERR.. 11/28/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment