Monday, November 1, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020057

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MUCH OF S THROUGH E TX
INTO WRN LA AND SWRN AR...

...S THROUGH E TX...WRN LA AND SWRN AR...
EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SSEWD ACROSS THE WRN EXTENT OF THE SRN PLAINS... WITH
THIS FEATURE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FARTHER INTO TX TONIGHT/ EARLY
TUESDAY. STRONGER MIDLEVEL WINDS /50+ KT/ WERE BEGINNING TO ROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH INTO NRN/CENTRAL PARTS OF TX AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD E/SEWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...INCREASING
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER E TX TONIGHT...WHILE A COLD FRONT...
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE OK/AR BORDER SSWWD INTO NERN TX AND
THEN SWWD TO NEAR AUS TO THE TX BIG BEND REGION...WILL ADVANCE SEWD
TOWARD THE TX COAST. TSTM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM THE NRN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK AND SWWD
INTO S TX WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TX
GULF COAST BY 12Z TUESDAY.

RECENT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO THE W AND N
OF HOU...WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM 50 S CLL TO IER
AND ALSO NWD TO THE VICINITY OF SHV AND ARKLATEX REGION. A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ALONG AND E TO S OF THE COLD FRONT AND
INCREASING EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /30-40 KT/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED
STORMS...INITIALLY DISCRETE AS SHEAR VECTORS ARE ORIENTED AT A
GREATER ANGLE TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AT THE INTERSECTION OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE NWRN GULF MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. OTHERWISE...STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
COLDER H5 TEMPERATURES SPREAD SEWD WITH APPROACHING TROUGH WILL
SUPPORT HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BACK TO SWLY...WHICH SUGGESTS
ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LINEAR MODE LATER THIS EVENING
WITH BOTH A THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS.

..PETERS.. 11/02/2010

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