Sunday, November 28, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281257
SWODY1
SPC AC 281256

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0656 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

VALID 281300Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER SRN NV WILL CONTINUE E TO THE SRN RCKYS BY
THIS EVE BEFORE TURNING NE INTO THE CNTRL PLNS EARLY MON.
ADDITIONAL SPEED MAXIMA NOW OVER THE ORE/WA CST EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
LARGER SCALE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HEIGHTS
RISE OVER THE EAST. OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED
LEE TROUGHING OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS...WITH THE SFC LOW CENTER
LIKELY REACHING CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS/NEB BY 12Z MON.

ASSOCIATED STRENGTHENING AND DEEPENING OF SLY LOW LVL FLOW WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN TO INCREASE FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO NWD
INTO ERN PORTIONS OF TX AND OK. EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT PW TRENDS
OVER THE NWRN GULF SUGGEST THAT PW AROUND 1 INCH COULD REACH SE OK
BY 12Z MON. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE MID LVL CINH WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION...AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL BE MINIMAL AS LEAD UPR IMPULSE
HEADS TOWARD THE CNTRL PLNS. NEVERTHELESS...MOISTURE INFLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCTD ELEVATED CONVECTION IN WAA ZONE OVER
PARTS OF N CNTRL/NE TX AND ERN OK LATE IN THE PERIOD. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 11/28/2010

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