SWODY1
SPC AC 041248
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 AM CDT THU NOV 04 2010
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...FL TODAY...
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL ACCELERATE EWD OVER
FL AS AN OPEN WAVE BY THIS EVENING...AS A LARGE SCALE TROUGH
AMPLIFIES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE TN VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS FROM NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC
NNEWD TO SE NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS FL TONIGHT.
THE ONLY SUBSTANTIAL INLAND WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE CONUS WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FL PENINSULA TODAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT
AND EJECTING MIDLEVEL WAVE. LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS FL TODAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MASS INFLUX
IS FOCUSED FARTHER NE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CYCLOGENESIS. THIS WILL LEAVE AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR BUT WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR. CAPE WILL
ALSO BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE NET RESULT WILL BE A WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY IN
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT...AND A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH THE
REMNANT MIDLEVEL TROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL/N FL.
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...OTHER THAN MARGINALLY GUSTS.
...SRN LAKE MI TO ERN KY TODAY...
STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ACCOMPANY THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER THE REGION TODAY...WITH LAKE-ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER
LAKE MI AND MORE DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED FARTHER SE INTO THE OH
VALLEY. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE OF 100-200
J/KG AND EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO SUPPORT
CHARGE SEPARATION /AOB -25 C/. STILL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
STRIKES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR A GENERAL
TSTM AREA.
..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/04/2010
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