SWODY1
SPC AC 210038
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CST SAT NOV 20 2010
VALID 210100Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWD
WITH TIME...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM RIDGING TO OCCUR
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE PERIOD.
STABLE AIR -- AND ASSOCIATED LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION -- WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH 21/12Z...WITH AN EXCEPTION OVER
PARTS OF CA AND VICINITY. HERE...COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
SEWD-MOVING UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE VERY MODEST BUOYANCY -- AND ASSOCIATED THREAT
FOR OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING -- OVER CENTRAL CA AND VICINITY.
DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL CA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...GIVEN BUOYANCY
LIMITATIONS...VERY LITTLE LIKELIHOOD FOR APPRECIABLE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT. A BRIEF STRONGER CELL OR TWO MAY AFFECT AREAS
FROM THE SAN FRANSISCO BAY REGION INLAND TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
VALLEY...BUT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LESS THAN MINIMUM 2%/5%
THRESHOLDS.
..GOSS.. 11/21/2010
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