SWODY1
SPC AC 011611
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010
VALID 011630Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX...WESTERN AR...AND WESTERN LA...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING/ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/LA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO TX/LA WITH 70 F
DEWPOINTS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS SHV. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/LA COAST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY ROTATE WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW
IN THIS AREA.
LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THIS AREA WILL PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE BY MIDNIGHT.
..HART/ROGERS.. 11/01/2010
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