Sunday, November 28, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 281937
SWODY1
SPC AC 281935

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CST SUN NOV 28 2010

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MODELS AVAILABLE FOR THE 20Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK...INCLUDING THE
18Z RUC/15Z SREF...MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS NERN TX INTO ERN OK
AND ADJACENT AREA OF WRN AR. THUS...NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS
ISSUANCE.

..PETERS.. 11/28/2010

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST SUN NOV 28 2010/

...SRN PLAINS...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK OVER THE LOWER CO
VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE NEWD INTO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER TONIGHT
WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM VORTICITY/JET MAXIMUM DIGGING SEWD THROUGH
THE SRN ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT THE EWD PROGRESSION OF
AMPLIFYING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THROUGH THE WRN U.S. WITH SIGNIFICANT
HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING THE GREAT
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY ONE PERIOD. THIS MID TO UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
EVOLUTION WILL FOSTER THE CONTINUED DEEPENING OF LEE CYCLONE OVER
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WHICH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP EWD FROM ERN CO
INTO CNTRL KS. AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EWD THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.

12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW INCIPIENT MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE
SURFACE ALONG THE TX COAST...A PROCESS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS A BROAD SSWLY LLJ IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. THE COMBINATION OF A PRONOUNCED CAP AT THE BASE OF AN EML
AND LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INHIBIT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER...BETWEEN 29/09Z-12Z...LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AND
ASCENT WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF ELEVATED TSTMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NERN TX INTO ERN OK.

ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AND WEAKENING
SYNOPTIC FRONT OVER THE SERN FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...RISING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS AND POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
A MORE ROBUST TSTM THREAT.

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