Friday, November 12, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 130440
SWODY1
SPC AC 130438

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1038 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2010

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPACT UPPER LOW SEEN ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS
OF 05Z WILL PROGRESS NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A
SECONDARY UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BUILDS
SEWD/AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE
LOW WILL DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY SURGES EWD...REACHING THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND CNTRL GULF LATE
IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

00Z SOUNDINGS AND WV IMAGERY REFLECT A VERY DRY AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES/WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECTANT AIR MASS
RECOVERY/MOISTURE RETURN IS POOR AND WILL GENERALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP...WHILE THE UPPER FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...A WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED WITH CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS TEXAS...WITH LITTLE REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED FOR THE
DAY 1 TIME FRAME AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD.

..HURLBUT/EDWARDS.. 11/13/2010

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