Tuesday, November 9, 2010

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 091241
SWODY1
SPC AC 091240

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0640 AM CST TUE NOV 09 2010

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL REMAIN SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE THIS PERIOD AS
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX OVER THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES ENE TO THE CNTRL HI
PLNS BY EVE. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD THEN TURN NEWD TONIGHT/EARLY
WED...AND ASSUME A NEGATIVE TILT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS. FARTHER
W...UPR LOW NOW NEARING VANCOUVER ISLAND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ESE
INTO WA AS POTENT SPEED MAX ON S SIDE OF SYSTEM SWEEPS ESE ACROSS
NRN CA/NV TONIGHT/EARLY WED.

...PAC NW...
DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND ASCENT IN EXIT REGION OF 90-110 KT MID LVL
JET STREAK MAY SUPPORT WDLY SCTD TSTMS ALONG THE WA AND ORE CST THIS
AFTN AND EVE...AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND 500 MB TEMPS
FALL TO AROUND MINUS 28C.

...CNTRL RCKYS/HI PLNS...
A FEW AREAS OF RELATIVELY SHALLOW HIGH-BASED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY FOUR CORNERS VORT AS THE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS
CO/SRN WY AND THE ADJACENT HI PLNS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND COMPARATIVELY MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES
SUGGEST A MINIMAL LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDER.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/09/2010

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